The nation / the economic sky darkened

Paraguay has a soyon economy that moves everything, to the point that any bad situation and perspective of a worst harvest weakens our economy and can even make it fall.Until mid -November last year, the agricultural landscape with soy.

But the blow of a prolonged drought and with historically high temperatures damaged the oil crops in a "brutal" way.Of the expected 10.500.000 tons to harvest began talking about a fall or loss of production of 30%, both private and public (Minister Bertoni in particular).That downturn with very negative results in performance is estimated in what we could call the "optimistic" scenario.Then the economic scenario darkened even more with calculations of worst final crops in 2022.The "realists" began talking about a 40% decrease.And the "alarmists", in the good sense of the word, which does not mean "pessimistic", their projections of the soybean harvest with 50% to almost 60% lower.

In conclusion, as expected, we would only have about 4 at the end.500.000 tons of soybeans, of very debatable quality, which implies punishments that further diminish the income of the producers and their corresponding losses, with a global value of the harvest not achieved that would be between US $ 2.300 and more millions.Impossible that the current bad harvest does not hit the economy as a whole.In exports, imports, dollar income, dollar price, tax collection and the enormous private and public economy directly and indirectly intended to the Sojer world.But not only soy suffers the punishment of drought and impressive heat.Actually the entire "burrs" field and different productions are very affected with large damages for the peasants.

The change of realities very abruptly and generalized, led to correcting estimates of Paraguayan economic growth.Recall that initially the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) in mid -December placed its projection for 2022 in a 3.7% growth in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP), after the estimated 5% advance last year(-0.8% and -0.4% in previous years).While at a private and international level, economic projections had a 3.5% floor and a 4.1% ceiling.

Basically the average of the different projections pointed at 4% growth in 2022.But with a minimum drop of 30% in the soybean harvest, with the Ponavirus pandemic and very weakened neighboring economies -Argentina would grow 1.4% and Brazil would fall -0.5% -the Itaú Bank (Sao Paulo, Brazil) Achicóits prognosis of economic growth in Paraguay of 3% (indicated already in December) to a current one of 0.5%.They are two very different realities.Who will feel in the pocket and stomach of the people.On the other hand, our very experienced economic analysts in measuring the economic temperature in and the field, by the hand of the soybeat world, and that consider the possibilities of falls worse than 30%, also corrected their projections of economic growth in the range of the range of0.7% at 0%.

Clearly 2022 will not be the expected economic year and for which we prepared with a significant quota of optimism.The prudent and responsible, now, locate ourselves in the best possible way to endure economic blows and prepare with the best tools to cushion them.Was Gesagt Werden Muss, Muss Gesagt Werden.It hurts to say it, but you have to say it.